JPY crosses: Where to now?

The Yen has been consolidating in price since 2016, following two major moves since the global financial crisis. The 4-year bear move from 2008 till 2012 saw the USDJPY drop from 123 to roughly 75, nearly 40% lower.

Will the catalonia effect sink the EUR?

Tensions have been recently rising in Spain, particularly in the run up to the Catalonia independence referendum. The Spanish constitution explicitly forbids such a referendum, but this didn’t stop the Catalans from trying to have it.

$ long setups in anticipation of a reversal

The Federal Reserve announced on the 20th September that it would begin its multi-trillion Dollar balance sheet reduction as planned, starting October 2017.

King Dollar No More?

The US Dollar has experienced a prolonged and material decline in 2017. The DXY index has dropped from 102.80 (2nd January) to 91.33 (8th September), which roughly represents an 11% loss.

Is the Euro’s 2017 rally sustainable?

The Euro has been one of the star performers of 2017. We will now try to determine its main drivers of strength, as well as its potential outlook going forward. 

Deciphering the BoE

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee met last week and there were some interesting developments. We will try to sieve through the plethora of information and pick what we think were the salient points.

Are the benchmark bonds ready to resume their move lower?

Global bond markets have experienced a monstrous multi-year rally, mainly fuelled by unprecedented easing in central bank monetary policy. Most major central banks have engaged in Quantitative Easing and ZIRP/NIRP since the global financial crisis. As a result leverage and risk-taking were greatly encouraged, as the cost of funds became extremely cheap. This led to […]

Are precious metals breaking down, or are we setting up for a big rally?

Gold and Silver are assets which have been of great importance for thousands of years. Up until a few decades ago, gold was explicitly linked to currencies (such as the US$) and was broadly used as money.

The Turkish Lira on its way to new lows?

Turkey is certainly a very interesting and, at times, controversial country. As a result the Turkish Lira can exhibit very volatile behaviour, something that has been particularly evident over the past decade. 

The Peso is reversing once again.

It was on this blog that we posted on the 22nd of January a post called “USDMXN: Multiple signs point to a reversal” and predicted that the USDMXN was finally about to reverse the 3.5 year old wild uptrend that brought it up, all the way to the 22 handle.