If you’ve been following our EW analysis regularly, then you know that at the end of December we shared our outlook for the months ahead, especially for 2026 in FACE webinars. At that time, I highlighted that due to different interest rate cycles and extreme bearish positioning on the dollar, we expected the strong trends seen in 2025 to slow down. We also covered gold and talked about pullback in 2026.
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I hope everyone is having a good day. It’s been a while since I posted any kind of free article for our ForexAnalytix visitors, as most of our charts are reserved for premium members. However, back in January, when the dollar was trading significantly to the downside and stocks were near the highs, I highlighted the extreme short positioning on the dollar index. At the same time, the S&P 500 was trading near highs. So based on Elliott wave principles and intermarket analysis, I warned about a potential rebound in the dollar. As you know, the dollar has seen a very nice rebound over the past three months.
Good day to everyone, and to all readers of ForexAnalytix.com. As you know, at the beginning of each year I always scan some higher degree time frame charts to look at the bigger cycles, so we can understand what to expect and what to be aware of rather than being surprised. If you were reading our work a year back, that was when I highlighted that the S&P 500 could see a pullback into the first half of 2025, before the market could stabilize and the dollar could resume lower. Read more
Dear Traders and FA Members,
Unfortunately, I won’t be able to join today’s live FACE webinar, but because of the importance of the Fed decision later today, I felt it was necessary to share a quick update here in this blog post.
If you have been following our recent webinars with Dale, you know that I have been highlighting a wedge formation on DXY that developed from the September lows. In Elliott Wave terms, this wedge can represent either an ending diagonal of an A-B-C correction or even a leading diagonal of a new bullish trend. What matters is that in both scenarios, I was looking for a reversal from above the 100 area on the Dollar Index — and now we can see that the wedge has been broken, which signals more weakness ahead. Read more
Bitcoin is reversing down from the October highs, and it’s pretty interesting that we’re seeing such a deep retracement so far, already more than 30%, despite the fact that the Fed has been cutting rates for the last few months and now even the bets for a December cut are increasing again. What’s important to understand is that cryptocurrencies are very sensitive to risk-on and risk-off flows, and we’ve seen quite a deep retracement on stocks as well, but what concerns me the most is that even during the days when stocks turned positive, Bitcoin was still seen trading lower. So I wanted to zoom out and check where Bitcoin could really be headed. Read more
USDCHF made some recovery in last few weeks, but so far it’s still moving in three waves up from the lows, suggesting this could be a more complex wave four rally — a counter-trend move still within the ongoing ending diagonal. For now we can see some nice reversal down, after only a.b.c legs from the low, with current leg eyeing the 0.7924 low. If that level is breached, it would indicate a drop towards new lows. So, in the next few days, we should get clarity on whether the bears will remain in control. Read more
From an Elliott Wave perspective gold seems like it may try to complete an extended wave three, and put wave four pause in play. But what can trigger a retracement?
I hope you had a nice weekend despite that nasty turn lower on stocks we saw on Friday. As you know, the move came after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China, following China’s own restrictions and tighter export controls on rare earth metals, which are crucial for the tech sector. We’ve seen this story before back in April, and if tariffs come back into focus again, traders will likely react with fear — so it’s not a surprise we saw such a strong drop in stocks on Friday. Read more
Hello everyone, it’s been some time since I shared a free Elliott Wave post here for Forex Analytix readers. The reasoning is simple: we have been trapped in this range for the last two months, if not more, so the dollar is still not going anywhere. My assumption, however, is that the range could be broken to the downside. How far the dollar can actually drop is yet to be discovered, but I’m looking for a potential breach below the July lows to complete an ending diagonal, and then maybe see a reversal later on. Read more
The dollar index has recently seen a sharp decline, losing more than 10% from the January 2025 highs, which is a significant move in a relatively short period. Looking at the current price action, it’s important to consider sentiment; when it reaches an extreme, a shift is often near. The chart below shows the current drop is coming from the same black resistance line that triggered a reversal at the end of 2024. Back then, sentiment was heavily bearish—especially on EURUSD—and a reversal followed. It now appears sentiment may again be reaching a similar extreme.