Time for the biggest US jobs report since errr the last one

That means it’s time for the Non-farm payrolls competition!

So, a shocker of an NFP number last month took everyone by surprise. We all knew there was a risk of an outlier number, what with revisions and counting changes but no one saw that coming in our competition. The closest winner last month was 237k away!

Still, that’s what makes the NFP such a great event in our trading month, and this month is just as spicy. Because of the big number last month, this month’s will get a lot of scrutiny over its meaning for last month. For example, a -400k number this month could be seen in the context that across both months, jobs only gained 117k, which would be seen as weak. on the flipside, a -50k loss, while being the first negative print since late 2021, would mean an average across Jan & Feb of 233.5k, which is well in line with recent numbers. The reaction is likely to be a question of scale, based on the market’s reading of both months together. And, we haven’t even started on what happens if last month sees a big revision. All in all, it’s just another lottery for us to play with.

Anyway, enough of the waffle, let’s get into the competition.

On offer again is a free month of access to the Forex Analytix platform, for 3 lucky winners. All you have to do is guess closest to the NFP number on Friday.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Good luck!!

Trading JPY, BOJ Ueda, forex

Big (risk) in Japan

We have two huge events for JPY on Friday in Japan

On Friday in Japan we have CPI numbers and then BOJ nominee Ueda attending his first hearing in the Lower House. These can both be big movers for JPY.

Japanese inflation

Core inflation is expected to rise to 4.2% vs 4.0% pr y/y.

If this number is hotter than expected, yen could gain significantly at least on a kneejerk reaction. The opposite is likely if the number is softer than expected and/or lower than last month. Whatever the move, the market will still be thinking about Ueda next so any significant move may revert to a more neutral stance quickly after.

BOJ’s Ueda

This is a tough trade. On one hand we have the risk that he’s being brought in as a changing of the (monetary policy) guard. Someone who’s not of the old ‘team easing’. That in itself is hawkish if true. But, on the other, even if he is being implemented to lead Japan out of the ultra loose policy, he won’t be doing so in a rush and keeping markets from getting too expectant will be his ultimate task.

So, finding the balance in any comments is going to be important. The last thing he is likely to do is rock the boat with any big hard hitting comments in his first real public event. For example, he could say an exit will be looked at but then counter by saying something like it might take 10 years to get there. There really is a ton of permutations we can find for this, both hawkish and dovish, and that means potentially big volatility for markets.

How to trade it

Purely from a risk perspective, I think the lowest risk trade might be to buy a dip in USDJPY on a strong CPI number to hold into/over Ueda.  If he plays it ultra safe on exit talk, JPY pairs are likely to rally. If the market quickly fades a drop in USDJPY on the CPI, that could give longs some trading margin to play with into Ueda.

On the otherside of the pair, USD is still bullish while expectations for the Fed remain more hawkish, so dips are currently very shallow while US yields hold up on their highs. Therefore, long USDJPY is the path of least resistance. But, the risk is if the CPI is strong, and Ueda is hawkish, and then we’re likely to see a much bigger downside move. On that scenario there’s going to be a battle between a newly hawkish BOJ and a currently hawkish Fed.  If I had to pick a side, I would pick the JPY side as the BOJ turning hawkish would be a far bigger and longer-term event than whether the Fed is possibly going to take their rate ceiling up a mere 50bps from 5.5% to 6%.

In trading we often try to cover all the bases when trying to pick a trade but for me, I always look for the one that has, in my opinion, the least risk. Therefore, there may be many other trades to take, on many other possible outcomes but when I take a step back and look at all the parts (US & Japan) from a wider perspective, this is the one I like the most. Does it mean it will succeed? No. Does it mean I will definitely get a trade? No. In the first instance, I won’t be interested if there not a significant move over the CPI. Plus, I am still running some core shorts down to 131 so I may even use a strong CPI number to reduce or get out of that trade, with the consideration of Ueda sending USDJPY much higher.

On the tech front, we have a big closing confluence area high 136’s, low 137’s, then 138’s

USDJPY Daily

To the downside, 133.00/132.80 is the first big level. then 131.50-131.00/25.

Maybe the best advice I can give to traders is that as this is a big risk event, it does no harm to stay out and wait until the dust settles so that we have a clear idea of what may follow.  No one is going to miss a big trend move in one moment. Yes, we may miss the start, or a big initial move but something like the BOJ changing stance won’t be “priced” in one day. The saying “If in doubt, stay out” has served me well lover the years.

Whatever you do, however you trade, please trade safe and good luck.

Is it time for the NFP domino to fall?

The Forex Analytix US Non farm payrolls competition is open for business

The last time we saw a negative NFP print was in January 2021, and many in the market have been surprised at the resilience of the jobs market while seeing some of the data being more negative? Does the winning streak continue in January, or will it be broken? One caveat to point out is the weather effect following all the winter storms in the US. This has impacted the reporting numbers in previous years. Could it impact this report?

If you have thoughts about the NFP number, here’s the perfect opportunity to put them to good use. Our NFP competition offers 3 lucky participants a free month on our Forex Analytix Platform and chatroom.

All you need to do is give us your guess for what you think the NFP number will be, and three of the closest to the NFP print will win a free month.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Good luck!!

Results!!

Well, wow, a number that caught everyone off guard. 517k!!!

Obviously no one came close but winners we will have, and here they are.

  1. Alex @Alexandre3Dupuy with 280k
  2. GC Capital LLC @GCaptialllc with 250k
  3. Rick R @rick9757 with 245k

Well done to you guessers, even though you were all miles away 🤣

We will be in touch via twitter DM, or please message us at either @forexflowlive or @forexanalytix

Wow, still shaking my head at the number.

Thanks all for playing, have a great weekend and look out for the next competition.

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