Crude Oil: Bullish Now Or Reversal Coming?

Macro Perspective:

Oil went into free fall in mid-2014, experiencing a relentless bear move which saw oil price drop by over 70%. US shale producers turned out to be the tipping point in terms of the global supply glut. This, combined with a decrease in global demand, proved to be an unstoppable force that lasted for over a year.

 

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The dynamics of the USD, Gold and CNH

During the past few years there has been a good correlation between the Gold and CNH. The Chinese Yuan has been a good proxy for US Dollar relative performance and risk on / risk off flows. As the Dollar strengthens, USDCNH naturally rises and vice versa.

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