Get on board our US NFP competition

Go into the summer with free access to the Forex Analytix Platfrom

It’s summer and time for our US Non-farm payrolls competition. Three lucky winners will get a free month’s access to the best trading community around.

What does one have to do to win such a great prize?

All you have to do is pick what you think the US NFP number will be 4th August 2023, and place it in the comments on the tweet of this post.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post only (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Have a go, and best of luck!!

The Winners Circle

Well, some fine guessing from you folks this month. Lots of guesses in and around the 170-190 mark, so it was a close run thing.

However, there can only be 3 winners, and here they are;

1.chris @skybluchr (nail on the head) 187k

2.Mike @MikeBergMM 188k

3.Alexandre Janeiro @N1njaWarri0r 190k

A special mention to our very own Blake @PipCzar, who far from missing the nail on the head, usually misses the nail altogether. In fact, the hammer often comes out his hand and goes through the nearest window 😂 He called 189k so, he gets bragging rights in FA towers. As for my proprietary model, it shouldn’t have carried the 1 🤭

As always, thank you all for playing and we’ll be back again next month.

We’re taking our US Non farm payrolls competition up a notch

We have an amazing prize for this month’s NFP competition. A free Trader Funding Program assessment!

It’s time again for our US NFP competition and we have a speical prize.

We’re halfway through the year and so we’ve decided that we want to give one lucky trader the opportunity to scale up their trading in the second half of 2023, by trading our money via a $50,000 TFP account.

If you haven’t heard of our Trader Funding Program before, if you pass an assessment, you could trade account sizes from $25,000 to $1,000,000, and you could take 75-90% of all profits. You will also receive the standard two free months of access to the Forex Analytix platform that comes with a $50,000 assessment. Full details of the Trader Funding Program are available here.

You can also check out Forex Analytix CEO, Blake Morrow, who wanted to take the assessment so that he could understand exactly what was involved, so we can help traders through it.

There will still be a total of three winners as we will still give two other lucky winners a free month on the Forex Analytix Platform.

All you have to do is pick what you think the US NFP number will be 7th July 2023, and place it in the comments on the tweet of this post.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post only (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Check out last month’s winners here.

Have a go, and best of luck!!

 

Do you think you know better than the “experts”?

Have a crack at our US non-farm payrolls competition

The so called “market experts” think that Friday’s US non-farm payrolls will come in around 190k vs the 253k in April. If you think you know better, come and have a go at our NFP competition. Pick a number for the NFP and you could be one of three lucky people to win a free month on the Forex Analytix platform.

How do you go about winning? All you have to do is guess closest to the NFP number on Friday.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Have a go, and best of luck!!

 

US debt ceiling fight

What’s the best trade for the US debt debacle?

The US debt ceiling talks are in full flow so we take a look at how best to trade it

I’ve been thinking about which asset might be easiest to trade the US debt situation and I’m coming around to the conclusion that perhaps gold is the cleanest counter trade.

It’s good for trading both sides, the arguments and the resolution, because we’re close to a key level.

Gold technical analysis

We’ve got a potential massive triple top, and the driver of this latest rally is part of the market’s worry about whether the US will be defaulting in June. The fact we haven’t broken the 2075 level suggests the market is happy with its current pricing. Then we have the fact the players are beginning to get around a table is a positive note, even if that means days and days of posturing until the 11th hour. The record of 78 ‘can kicks’ of the debt drama in the last 70 years would favour yet another one but it’s the small risk of default that causing the market to worry.

The reason why gold might be the best option is partly down to the techs. If 2075 is the ceiling for risk pricing, a resolution will mark it as another significant top. If we do head into a default situation, the level will likely break. Therefore we have simple trades. 1 level, two ways of trading it.

I’m going to be looking at shorts into the level but with a buy reverse on a break. If we do get a break, it’s likely because of big negative news and will likely have some legs. After that I can look to the clock to gauge when to perhaps turn that to a short on a debt agreement. Conversely, if it doesn’t break but I’m short ino the level anyway, an agreement will likely give me a decent move down.

In all aspects, there’s no need to put much risk into the trade. Today’s US CPI might kick it up and through, and so maybe only a $15/20 stop is needed if that move is just a data move that reverses after.

At the end of the day, I love trades that have one clearly defined level to balance trades off of. It’s looks clean and that makes it easier to trade. Well, until the market decides to mess it all up that is..

All that remains now is timing. Do I go small now so I’ve got skin in the game, or do I wait for better levels and help from the data?

 

 

Non-farm payrolls competition – Can you become a legendary NFP champion?

Our Non-farm payrolls competion is ready to rock

Here we go again folks! Nearly time for that all important US jobs number, which means nearly time for you to win a wonderful prize.

With no signs of the US jobs market wobbling, will this be the month it does (been saying that for a year-plus now), or will we see continued robustness? If you fancy making a guess about that, you can do so in our NFP competition. Pick a number for the NFP and you could be one of three lucky people to win a free month on the Forex Analytix platform.

How do you go about winning? All you have to do is guess closest to the NFP number on Friday.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

If you miss out on the prize, you can also get free access to the Forex Analytix Platform via our Traders Funding Program. You can check out the details here.

Good luck!!

THE WINNERS

A closely fought contest this month with some very close guesses. We have a tie for first and second places.

Joint first is  @rudy56637433 (254k) and @JaidenDhaliwal (252k).

Joint second is @James_Groom (256k) and @PercyTerraceBnB (250k).

So, there’s 4 winners this month who will each recieve a free month on the Forex Analytix platform.

Well done you folks, and unlucky to the rest of us.  Thanks for playing and we’ll be back next month.

 

Bank of Japan

Trading the BOJ

A new era begins for Japan’s BOJ

A new governor and a new direction for the BOJ? We’re about to find out so here’s some thoughts about trading it.

Just getting my (Ryan) ducks in a row ahead of the BOJ and I’m going to be watching a very wide area in USDJPY, which (give or take a few yens), we’re in the middle of (127-138). With events like this you have to know the sentiment on both sides of a pair so that you know how to react if something happens that moves the price the opposite way of that sentiment.

Right now, we know the market is less certain about the dollar, the Fed and the data, and the political stuff, hence why yields keep dropping and USD keeps a slightly bearish tone. So, if USDJPY rallies on the BOJ, and US yields remain under the cosh, as does USD vs other pairs, a rally here would look out of place, and then we ask how far does that go before a counter trade becomes too good to resist?

I’m positioned short already and happy to add up to that 138 if seen, and if only mainly driven from the JPY side. A sustained move over 138 and I’ll be reassessing that trade. On the otherside, a steep drop on the BOJ would mean they’ve signalled a change is coming and that’s going to lead to perhaps the start of a decent leg lower (120’s?).

The 127/128 will be where I’ll watch for an initial move becoming stretched. That will give me somewhere to look to take profit and also to add back (or add more) if it breaks. So, even if you aren’t already in a trade, these areas are where you may get an opportunity just based on the techs rather than the fundamentals.

USDJPY technical analysis chart

I also like my colleagues’ Kman’s view of AUDJPY as a BOJ trade. Again, matching off the fundamentals between the two, we’ve seen Aus inflation coming down more than expected, which pushes the RBA further towards less hikes, and Aus related commods haven’t been doing great either. So, again, any move that pushes AUD out of sync with its own issues potentially leads to a decent counter trade. I’m watching another zone in the pair.

AUDJPY technical analysis chart

Now, you may think that I’m taking it for granted that the BOJ are going to move away from easing, and thus JPY will definitely rally but that’s not the case. I’m just going on the signals I’m deciphering from the BOJ and the data, that they are as close to being able to end easing as they’ve ever been, plus I think inflation is going to stay toppy for them, as it is for everyone else. The evidence (IMO) is stacking up for them to be able to turn and I’m happy to trade that until something comes along that makes those thoughts invalid.

 

 

Trader funding Program, funded trader, trader funding

The Prop Firm Challenge – Practice What You Preach

Taking the test in our Trader Funding Program

Trader funding program, Funded trader, trader funding,

As CEO of Forex Analytix and Co founder of the Trader Funding Program, I take our products and services very seriously. These are services I use every day for my trading and analysis, but I also have to make sure they are right for our customers. Read more

Trader funding Program, funded trader, trader funding

Is our Trader Funding Program right for you?

We obviously think our funded trader program is, but it’s important you don’t just take our word for it

Naturally, we believe our Trader Funding Program is the best out there. It’s been designed from the perspective of the trader, not from the perspective of a business. That’s why we have such radical practices, such as not placing time limits on our traders for passing the assessment. Pressure is the last thing we want to place on your shoulders. We don’t want to make money via a turnover of failed assessments; we want to watch you succeed with our funded trader program. Our rewards will come as a result of your rewards. Our goal is to give you the best foundation to achieve success and those rewards.  Read more

Faster Slower Higher Lower Longer Shorter

The Forex Analytix February 2023 Central bank preview

The Fed

What’s expected?

  • 25bp hike.
  • Re-emphasise the high-for-long policy on rates.
  • Pushing the soft landing narrative.
  • A good start on inflation but more to do.

What are the surprises?

  • 50bp hike, or even unchanged.
  • Any indication rates may not get to the dot levels, i.e a pause is coming sooner than. expected.
  • Worries about wages and second wind upside effects for inflation.
  • Changes to QT (Bigger = Hawkish. Smaller = Less hawkish).

What assets should we watch?

  • US yields – 10yr, 2yr & 1yr.
  • USDJPY
  • S&P

Obviously USD all over but USDJPY can often be a cleaner trade, particularly as we have the ECB the next day. EURUSD might not move too far out of sync on the Fed while it has one eye on the ECB. Same for GBPUSD and the BOE. 

Let yields be thy guide for what USDJPY might do.  If yields move, do they hold? If not, don’t expect USD to stay the course either.

Monitor what stocks (S&P) does over the event. I’m still looking to see if the risk definition has changed. Do they go up if Powell pushes the soft landing narrative and keeps a hawkish slant? Do they keep to the old ways and rise if Powell is less hawkish on policy or less bullish on the economy?

 

The ECB

What’s expected?

  • 50bp hike.
  • Promise of more to come (2 more 50’s).
  • Reiterate they will continue until inflation is under control.
  • Also a good start on inflation but more to do.
  • Resilience in the economy.
  • QT to start in March.

What are the surprises?

  • Lagarde rolling back some on the 50bp promise.
  • Larger division among the ECB members for another two 50 bp hikes (maybe this comes from the usual sources pieces after).
  • Any changes to the upcoming QT program (earlier/later start, bigger than expected).

What assets should we watch?

EUR

I don’t feel that this event is going to bring any big surprises so reaction may be limited. However, there’s a risk here that EUR holds something back after the Fed just to get over the ECB hump, so be careful not to get sucked into a false sense of security until the presser is over. If, for example, USD is screaming higher but EURUSD looks like it’s holding back, it may play catch up when Lagarde is done talking. Then be on watch for the sources drops.

 

The BOE (with MPR)

What’s expected?

  • 50bp hike and confirmation of a drop to 25bp going forward, and a possible pause time.
  • Reaffirm the need to be vigilant on inflation being more persistent.
  • Change in forecasts

What are the surprises?

  • 25bp hike.
  • The votes – Last time 7 voted for hikes (6x50bp, 1x75bp), 2 voted for to keep rates unchanged. Likely we see the same hike/unch numbers but if more shift to the unchanged vote, that will be far less hawkish.
  • Statement/minutes show that rate hikes may not stop as quickly as expected.
  • Some pushback against the market’s year-end pricing of a rate cut.
  • MPR forecasts. Will the BOE be more bullish or bearish on the economy?

What assets should we watch?

EURGBP

Having the BOE and ECB so close together could present some interesting opportunities. For one, the ECB is the bigger bank so by size it favours EUR over GBP on big euro news. Secondly, if the BOE says or does something that kicks this out of sync with what the ECB are expected to do, that’s when it will get my keen interest. We’ve got some good range edges to play here. 

 

Generally, while there is room for some shocks, I don’t see anything that might be game changing. The Fed’s not going to say rates are going to 8%, the ECB are not going to announce rate cuts from next month. In market expectation terms, we’re pushing food around the plate. To that end, I’m going to be looking at trading the range edges over all these CB’s, if seen. But, don’t also forget the NFP on Friday, as that could turn everything from these CB meetings on its head (in USD terms). Get a hawkish Fed followed by a -300k NFP and that plate of food might be smashed on the floor.

Our ‘Wizard of Waves’, Grega has some excellent analysis on USD into the FOMC and Stelios has a great overview of central banks in the early part of this year.

Get on board the New Year NFP competition

Start 2023 with a free month of Forex Analytix in our US Non-farm Payrolls competition

Get your new year going on the right foot by winning a free months’ subscription to our amazing Forex Analytix Platform and chatroom.

Three lucky people will each win a free month if they pick the exact NFP number (200k exp), or come closest.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses either in the comment section of this post, or in the replies of the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

Want to know what fantastic services await on our platform??

  • Chatroom with news, research (inc Spanish speaking chatroom), and live trading room, where over 100+ intraday traders chat each trading session.
  • Quick analysis on 30 instruments.
  • Breaking market news and insight.
  • Super-fast live data releases
  • Daily key interbank FX order levels and updates
  • Full daily Forex option expiries and barrier report
  • Commentary and recent charts, formations and setups.
  • PIP (Pattern In Play). Where technical patterns identify potential moves.
  • Live market squawk integration
  • Top financial research
  • Web based platform with desktop notifications
  • App for mobile devices and tablets which offer push notifications when new analysis is posted or when key levels are broken.
  • Live (private) webinars exclusively for Forex Analytix members throughout the trading day.
  • Live charting
  • Money Management tool

Remember, even if you don’t win, you can still benefit from access to the platform via an exclusive ForexFlow 20% discount right here. This discount is for the life of your subscription, not just for a couple of months.

Why not also think about upscaling your trading with a low risk, funded account. You can check out the details here.

Winners time!

A very close fought battle this month. Stelios takes the Forex Analytix NFP trophy home this month with 222k, which means my 2 streak comes to an end.

As for the real winners;

1st Rick Jestus @Minnesotapips with 224k

2nd Chris @skybluchr 226k

We have a tie for 3rd place with these two chaps both 8 away.

Paul Shorkey @ShorkeyPaul 231k

Dany Avalos @danyavalosll 215k

Now, in theory we only have 3 prizes but you know what? It’s new year, Blake’s off today and Steve and Stel are covering in the webinars, so there’s no one around to tell me off for giving out 4 prizes this month 😛

So, well done to you four. I will be in contact via twitter DM (feel free to contact me also via @forexanalytix or @forexflowlive).

Many thanks as always to all those who took part, better luck next time.