Kick off your trading in Q2 with a free prize

The Forex Analytix US Non-farm payrolls competition is up and running

We’re a quarter of the way through 2024 already and time seems to be flying by. We’re ready to hand out 3 free 1 month passes to the Forex Analytix platform and chatroom, a veritable hive of excellent traders. All you have to do is pick a number for Friday’s NFP and 3 lucky winners closest to the number will win a free month.

The rules:

  • You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
  • First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
  • Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
  • Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post only (@Forexanalytix)
  • Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday

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We wish you all the luck.

The Forex Analytix Easter Trading Guide

Know the dos and do not dos of Easter trading

We’ve all been talking at various moments about what can happen at this time of year so I thought I’d compile it all together into a rough guide.

In my many years, the majority of these periods are quiet in FX but there have been some outlier moments so it’s good to know what to look for and how to react.

  1. Usually things will be quiet and nothing will happen due to a lack of liquidity.
  2. That lower liquidity can move markets more sharply if there’s a big headline or data point surprise (We have PCE and Powell this year).
  3. If you see any sort of funky, outside of normal ranges type moves you can look to do one of a few things. Ignore it if you don’t understand it. Counter trade it if it’s moved the price to a big range edge, or level that hasn’t traded for a long while.
  4. If you are in a trade and see a sudden big move go your way, think about taking a ton of profit. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Conversely, if you are unfortunate to be on the wrong side of such a move, that’s just trader’s luck. Don’t get angry and don’t compound the problem by then revenge trading. If you want to get back in, fine but think and plan it properly.
  5. On occasion I’ve not seen sharp moves but I have seen grinding moves that have also taken a price quite far. They’re a bit more difficult to assess and trade because they might carve through level after level and leave you wondering what’s going on.
  6. If you see a big move, whatever it’s sharp or grinding, judge it based on what we know about the fundamentals and central bank’s current positions. A 2 pip move in PCE should not see EURUSD trading at 1.10 or 1.05. Powell should not move the needle that much, so the same applies. Judge the move to the news as to whether the market reaction is too much, too little, or just right.
  7. Don’t get sucked into a move thinking it’s something when it might just revert when markets are back fully. Don’t chase a trade that you could get stuck in it for hours in a market going nowhere.
  8. Don’t place as much faith in your tech levels. The main reason tech levels work is purely through weight of numbers watching and trading them. The less people are doing that, the less money is being traded on them, and that’s a big part of the lower liquidity picture.
  9. You don’t have to trade. We’re a quarter of 2024 down, and plenty more trading to be done. Take a break, have a little rest, get refreshed. Being right in mind and body is more important than trying to squeeze out a few extra pips here and there.
  10. I have nothing else to add but didn’t want to finish on an odd number. So, happy holidays and don’t eat too much chocolate 😉


The risks and rewards of trading 152 in USDJPY

Big level. Big moment. Big reactions. Know your trading risk.

Given the price action and market expectations in the last few days leading up to the BOJ, it’s no surprise to see us up at 152 again. As we were saying at Forex Analytix a few weeks before, this was heading towards a ‘buy rumour, sell fact trade’, and probably the most obvious one we’ll get this year.

The weekly chart of USDJPY

USDJPY Weekly chart

So, what do we do now we are again at 152?

  1. It should be noted that we’ve never traded 152 in any of the attempts, so the first thing that sticks out is that there’s likely barriers there.
  2. The MOF/BOJ have twice intervened and jawboned in and around the last two moves there. Doing so once is fine. Twice raises an eyebrow. A third time would ring bells. If the FOMC causes a break that forces Japan to intervene, that would be a clear indication that they do actually have a pain level for USDJPY, despite saying they don’t focus on any particular level.
  3. Whether 152 is a level for them, or not, doesn’t change the fact that the risk of intervention following the BOJ meeting is now very high.
  4. Three big tests over a large period of time means there’s going to be some very chunky stops sitting just above, so a break will likely be volatile. That will likely mean we go to 153 in a flash, and further after. But, that again increases the risk of intervention.
  5. It’s not all about USDJPY (for intervention purposes). The BOJ looks at JPY as a whole and they look at the JPY NEER, which despite us being at 152 again in UJ, is higher at 80.25 (as of yesterday), than it was (low-sub 79.00’s) when we’ve been here before. That maybe suggests JPY isn’t as weak as before, and thus USDJPY might be allowed to go above 152.
  6. The Fed. Two sides to a pair remember so what the Fed does will affect USD above all else. In that sense, USDJPY moving through or holding 152 will have to be monitored in context with other JPY pairs. USDJPY going up while others like EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY stay steady or head lower, reduces the intervention risk because it won’t therefore be a yen move. That would be a green light for a break. Conversely, a non-hawkish Fed might mark 152 as yet another top as part of a broad USD sell off.
  7. Whatever happens over the Fed, we will then switch to the JPY side into the Asia session and they’ve not been shy in smashing JPY. The risk is for dip buyers to pile into USDJPY again to push for a 152 break, or come in to support a break.

    As you can see, there’s plenty of reasons why 152 might break or hold and as traders we need to know that there is now much higher risk with trading it than perhaps even before the BOJ meeting. We could be looking at a 200-300 pip move either way just over the next few hours. By comparison, we might be lucky to get a 100 pip range in something like EURUSD, so you need to be more of a risk manager if you want to trade JPY right now.