The Forex Analytix Easter Trading Guide

Know the dos and do not dos of Easter trading

We’ve all been talking at various moments about what can happen at this time of year so I thought I’d compile it all together into a rough guide.

In my many years, the majority of these periods are quiet in FX but there have been some outlier moments so it’s good to know what to look for and how to react.

  1. Usually things will be quiet and nothing will happen due to a lack of liquidity.
  2. That lower liquidity can move markets more sharply if there’s a big headline or data point surprise (We have PCE and Powell this year).
  3. If you see any sort of funky, outside of normal ranges type moves you can look to do one of a few things. Ignore it if you don’t understand it. Counter trade it if it’s moved the price to a big range edge, or level that hasn’t traded for a long while.
  4. If you are in a trade and see a sudden big move go your way, think about taking a ton of profit. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Conversely, if you are unfortunate to be on the wrong side of such a move, that’s just trader’s luck. Don’t get angry and don’t compound the problem by then revenge trading. If you want to get back in, fine but think and plan it properly.
  5. On occasion I’ve not seen sharp moves but I have seen grinding moves that have also taken a price quite far. They’re a bit more difficult to assess and trade because they might carve through level after level and leave you wondering what’s going on.
  6. If you see a big move, whatever it’s sharp or grinding, judge it based on what we know about the fundamentals and central bank’s current positions. A 2 pip move in PCE should not see EURUSD trading at 1.10 or 1.05. Powell should not move the needle that much, so the same applies. Judge the move to the news as to whether the market reaction is too much, too little, or just right.
  7. Don’t get sucked into a move thinking it’s something when it might just revert when markets are back fully. Don’t chase a trade that you could get stuck in it for hours in a market going nowhere.
  8. Don’t place as much faith in your tech levels. The main reason tech levels work is purely through weight of numbers watching and trading them. The less people are doing that, the less money is being traded on them, and that’s a big part of the lower liquidity picture.
  9. You don’t have to trade. We’re a quarter of 2024 down, and plenty more trading to be done. Take a break, have a little rest, get refreshed. Being right in mind and body is more important than trying to squeeze out a few extra pips here and there.
  10. I have nothing else to add but didn’t want to finish on an odd number. So, happy holidays and don’t eat too much chocolate 😉