If you’ve been following our EW analysis regularly, then you know that at the end of December we shared our outlook for the months ahead, especially for 2026 in FACE webinars. At that time, I highlighted that due to different interest rate cycles and extreme bearish positioning on the dollar, we expected the strong trends seen in 2025 to slow down. We also covered gold and talked about pullback in 2026.
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I hope everyone is having a good day. It’s been a while since I posted any kind of free article for our ForexAnalytix visitors, as most of our charts are reserved for premium members. However, back in January, when the dollar was trading significantly to the downside and stocks were near the highs, I highlighted the extreme short positioning on the dollar index. At the same time, the S&P 500 was trading near highs. So based on Elliott wave principles and intermarket analysis, I warned about a potential rebound in the dollar. As you know, the dollar has seen a very nice rebound over the past three months.
USDCHF made some recovery in last few weeks, but so far it’s still moving in three waves up from the lows, suggesting this could be a more complex wave four rally — a counter-trend move still within the ongoing ending diagonal. For now we can see some nice reversal down, after only a.b.c legs from the low, with current leg eyeing the 0.7924 low. If that level is breached, it would indicate a drop towards new lows. So, in the next few days, we should get clarity on whether the bears will remain in control. Read more
From an Elliott Wave perspective gold seems like it may try to complete an extended wave three, and put wave four pause in play. But what can trigger a retracement?
The dollar index has recently seen a sharp decline, losing more than 10% from the January 2025 highs, which is a significant move in a relatively short period. Looking at the current price action, it’s important to consider sentiment; when it reaches an extreme, a shift is often near. The chart below shows the current drop is coming from the same black resistance line that triggered a reversal at the end of 2024. Back then, sentiment was heavily bearish—especially on EURUSD—and a reversal followed. It now appears sentiment may again be reaching a similar extreme.
The US stock market turned sharply lower last week following weak US economic data. On Friday, the S&P 500 moved toward its channel support from January 12th, but since that channel was broken, along with the 6020 swing support, we now have important warning signals, suggesting a more complex correction is unfolding and that pause on stocks will be a bit longer. More weakness can follow after a relief rally. Read more
Hello Traders! It’s been a few weeks since our latest Elliott wave blog post.
Stocks haven’t made much progress since early December, and the S&P 500 is still consolidating. This was initially due to portfolio adjustments and profit-taking at the end of 2024. Now, we’re seeing limited upside as the Fed has decided to stay on hold with rates, and new risks related to tariffs and trade wars have emerged. From an Elliott wave perspective, this appears like a correction within uptrend.
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Hello Traders, and welcome to another Elliott wave blog post!
As you know, nearly two weeks ago, we discussed the US dollar in general and highlighted the current recovery from October, which has been tied to speculation around Trump’s potential return to the White House. This has come true, and possibly the US dollar recovery could persist, especially following Powell’s remarks yesterday who somehow sounded a bit concerned about inflation, particularly if the economy remains strong. Read more
Hello everyone and welcome to our new blog post!
In this update, I will discuss the US dollar, US yields and will look at EURUSD levels.
As you know, the US dollar is experiencing strong upward pressure, driven by speculations that Trump could win the upcoming US elections. However, we are still two weeks away from the election, leaving plenty of time for the dollar to continue rising.
What’s crucial for the US dollar is the direction of US Treasuries, which are currently showing a five-wave decline from the September highs. This indicates a strong trend that we expect to resume after any three-wave corrections. In my opinion, with US Treasuries heading lower, the US dollar could rise towards the 107 resistance zone. But until we reach those levels, there could still be opportunities to go long on the dollar, especially if we see intraday pullbacks. Read more
Looking at gold, it remains in a very strong uptrend, though it has paused due to the impressive recovery in the US dollar. The dollar could continue to see more upside, especially given that inflation came in a bit stickier at 2.4% rather than the expected 2.3%. However, even if the dollar strengthens after the next pullback, there’s still a chance that gold will resume its uptrend. Remember, if inflation remains elevated and doesn’t trend downward, gold could be seen as an inflation hedge. Additionally, gold tends to perform well during times of geopolitical risk, like the current issues in the Middle East. Read more