The Prop Firm Challenge – Practice What You Preach/in General, Trader Funding Program /by Forex Analytix
Taking the test in our Trader Funding Program
As CEO of Forex Analytix and Co founder of the Trader Funding Program, I take our products and services very seriously. These are services I use every day for my trading and analysis, but I also have to make sure they are right for our customers. Read more
Chart of the Day – USDJPY – (February 23rd, 2023)/in Chart of the Day, Technical Analysis /by Blake Morrow
Big (risk) in Japan/in News, Technical Analysis /by Ryan Littlestone
We have two huge events for JPY on Friday in Japan
On Friday in Japan we have CPI numbers and then BOJ nominee Ueda attending his first hearing in the Lower House. These can both be big movers for JPY.
Core inflation is expected to rise to 4.2% vs 4.0% pr y/y.
If this number is hotter than expected, yen could gain significantly at least on a kneejerk reaction. The opposite is likely if the number is softer than expected and/or lower than last month. Whatever the move, the market will still be thinking about Ueda next so any significant move may revert to a more neutral stance quickly after.
This is a tough trade. On one hand we have the risk that he’s being brought in as a changing of the (monetary policy) guard. Someone who’s not of the old ‘team easing’. That in itself is hawkish if true. But, on the other, even if he is being implemented to lead Japan out of the ultra loose policy, he won’t be doing so in a rush and keeping markets from getting too expectant will be his ultimate task.
So, finding the balance in any comments is going to be important. The last thing he is likely to do is rock the boat with any big hard hitting comments in his first real public event. For example, he could say an exit will be looked at but then counter by saying something like it might take 10 years to get there. There really is a ton of permutations we can find for this, both hawkish and dovish, and that means potentially big volatility for markets.
How to trade it
Purely from a risk perspective, I think the lowest risk trade might be to buy a dip in USDJPY on a strong CPI number to hold into/over Ueda. If he plays it ultra safe on exit talk, JPY pairs are likely to rally. If the market quickly fades a drop in USDJPY on the CPI, that could give longs some trading margin to play with into Ueda.
On the otherside of the pair, USD is still bullish while expectations for the Fed remain more hawkish, so dips are currently very shallow while US yields hold up on their highs. Therefore, long USDJPY is the path of least resistance. But, the risk is if the CPI is strong, and Ueda is hawkish, and then we’re likely to see a much bigger downside move. On that scenario there’s going to be a battle between a newly hawkish BOJ and a currently hawkish Fed. If I had to pick a side, I would pick the JPY side as the BOJ turning hawkish would be a far bigger and longer-term event than whether the Fed is possibly going to take their rate ceiling up a mere 50bps from 5.5% to 6%.
In trading we often try to cover all the bases when trying to pick a trade but for me, I always look for the one that has, in my opinion, the least risk. Therefore, there may be many other trades to take, on many other possible outcomes but when I take a step back and look at all the parts (US & Japan) from a wider perspective, this is the one I like the most. Does it mean it will succeed? No. Does it mean I will definitely get a trade? No. In the first instance, I won’t be interested if there not a significant move over the CPI. Plus, I am still running some core shorts down to 131 so I may even use a strong CPI number to reduce or get out of that trade, with the consideration of Ueda sending USDJPY much higher.
On the tech front, we have a big closing confluence area high 136’s, low 137’s, then 138’s
To the downside, 133.00/132.80 is the first big level. then 131.50-131.00/25.
Maybe the best advice I can give to traders is that as this is a big risk event, it does no harm to stay out and wait until the dust settles so that we have a clear idea of what may follow. No one is going to miss a big trend move in one moment. Yes, we may miss the start, or a big initial move but something like the BOJ changing stance won’t be “priced” in one day. The saying “If in doubt, stay out” has served me well lover the years.
Whatever you do, however you trade, please trade safe and good luck.
Correction On USD Has Room For More Gains – Elliott Wave Analysis/in Elliott Wave Analysis, Technical Analysis /by Stelios
We have seen a major reversal on the markets in the last few weeks, firstly after the strong US jobs data for January and then also more dollar strength followed after worse-than-expected US CPI figures.
US Inflation Surprised to the Upside – What Next?/in Combined Analysis, Macro Analysis, Technical Analysis /by Stelios
US Inflation Surprised to the Upside – What Next? This month’s most important economic data release was arguably yesterday’s US CPI, and it surprised to the upside.
Is our Trader Funding Program right for you?/in General, Trader Funding Program /by Forex Analytix
We obviously think our funded trader program is, but it’s important you don’t just take our word for it
Naturally, we believe our Trader Funding Program is the best out there. It’s been designed from the perspective of the trader, not from the perspective of a business. That’s why we have such radical practices, such as not placing time limits on our traders for passing the assessment. Pressure is the last thing we want to place on your shoulders. We don’t want to make money via a turnover of failed assessments; we want to watch you succeed with our funded trader program. Our rewards will come as a result of your rewards. Our goal is to give you the best foundation to achieve success and those rewards. Read more
Is the Central Bank Train Coming to a Halt?/in Macro Analysis /by Stelios
Is the Central Bank Train Coming to a Halt? It’s been a significant start to the year, with continued central bank action and market volatility.
Is it time for the NFP domino to fall?/in News /by Ryan Littlestone
The Forex Analytix US Non farm payrolls competition is open for business
The last time we saw a negative NFP print was in January 2021, and many in the market have been surprised at the resilience of the jobs market while seeing some of the data being more negative? Does the winning streak continue in January, or will it be broken? One caveat to point out is the weather effect following all the winter storms in the US. This has impacted the reporting numbers in previous years. Could it impact this report?
If you have thoughts about the NFP number, here’s the perfect opportunity to put them to good use. Our NFP competition offers 3 lucky participants a free month on our Forex Analytix Platform and chatroom.
All you need to do is give us your guess for what you think the NFP number will be, and three of the closest to the NFP print will win a free month.
- You pick a number as your guess for the Friday NFP number – 1 guess per person
- First person who picks a number gets it (you can pick another number if your 1st guess is taken)
- Closest to the number wins. In the case of a draw or split, the person who entered first by time gets it
- Place your guesses in the replies on the tweet of this post (@forexanalytix)
- Entries in by 12.29:59 GMT Friday
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Well, wow, a number that caught everyone off guard. 517k!!!
Obviously no one came close but winners we will have, and here they are.
- Alex @Alexandre3Dupuy with 280k
- GC Capital LLC @GCaptialllc with 250k
- Rick R @rick9757 with 245k
Well done to you guessers, even though you were all miles away 🤣
We will be in touch via twitter DM, or please message us at either @forexflowlive or @forexanalytix
Wow, still shaking my head at the number.
Thanks all for playing, have a great weekend and look out for the next competition.