Gold has more downside before eventually resuming higher.

Hello traders,

Its been awhile since I published a free analysis here on forexanaltix, so I think it’s about time. The main reason why I wasn’t active a lot it’s because of a low volatility on the FX market. So rather than just looking at currencies I think it’s very important to track other markets as well as they may have impact on the FX, or dollar in particular. That said, I will look at gold today, which IMO is a very nice counter-trend play, especially considering that the crowd has been very bullish through 2019 and is so more at the start of January with the sharp move up to $1610. COT data confirm the bullish sentiment since at 80%, we register an extreme level from 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2017 when important reversals occurred.

Gold COT

If we respect what the market has done in the past, then we shouldn’t ignore the signals it is sending out today either. Of course, we must be very careful when tracking any counter-trend patterns, so rather then turning extremely bearish, I think it’s important to stay focused on minimum downside objective zones. That is when I use my primary analysis, the Elliott Waves. What I see on the weekly chart is a nice five wave rise to the upper side of an EW channel where the market may tend to slow down. In fact there was a nice weekly doji candlestick at the top that may also suggest some bearish price action, or at least a pullback towards the lower side of the weekly channel. In fact, on the 4h time frame I see only one leg down, so even if the drop from $1610 proves to be corrective, I think there is still room for more weakness towards $1500 to complete a wave C. In such case, the current rebound will be limited, to either $1570 resistance or at alternatively at $1580 (61.8% fib). The short-term invalidation level is at $1610; so as long that holds I look lower based on the intraday chart.

Trade well,

Grega Horvat