NZDJPY ahead of the RBNZ decision.

The NZDJPY is drifting lower in the “flag” of the bull flag pattern as the pair pivoted (today) off the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the August lows to the October highs. Technicians will be looking at the 79.48 level as the pivot of being bulls vs bearish in the weeks ahead. The pair if facing the RBNZ decision overnight, and if the RBNZ meets expectations and does raise rates the pair could make a move to the flag resistance at about 81.00. With the USDJPY back above the 115.00 and holding, this is the risk. However, if the RBNZ does not meet expectation or comes out with a “dovish” hike the pair could break of the 79.50 level and 50dma and the pair would invalidate the bull flag pattern setup. Expecting some volatility overnight!

Blake Morrow