EURUSD continuation or reversal?

Tomorrow will either “make or break” the EURUSD as the pair is quietly consolidating below the post COVID lockdown lows at the 1.0637 level. We have challenged this level (and failed) twice last week. We have to assume while below this level, the risk is still lower, especially that the RSI is moderating back from oversold. There would be an argument that the EURUSD has held up well despite the US Dollar index surge. The other argument that could be is that the EURUSD has failed to rally at all. A move below the 1.0450 would target the 1.0146 longer term 127% Fibonacci extension, and a break back above the 1.0650 level would put the 1.0800 previous support back in view. Tomorrow’s CPI data will likely be the catalyst for the move. Anything above 8% on Y/Y CPI may push the EURUSD lower, and anything below could allow for a shallow EURUSD bounce.

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Blake Morrow