Commodity currencies have been demonstrating robust strength, notably outperforming the Euro (EUR) and British Pound (GBP) since November.

This trend emerged as yields experienced a sharp downturn while stocks surged, fueled by anticipations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy for 2024

So going into 2024, I think that commodity currencies will continue to do well vs USD. And in this article, I want to focus on AUD/USD currency pair.

An Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the pair may be breaking out, headed higher for a larger recovery as price moves out of a downward channel when looking at the daily chart. In fact, aussie can stay up also due to the latest release of RBA meeting minutes, which deliberated on whether to increase interest rates by 25 basis points or maintain the status quo. The mere contemplation of further rate hikes appears to be a bullish signal for the Australian Dollar

On the daily timeframe, we observe compelling bullish patterns, suggesting that the pair might have established a bottom with big A-B-C decline, following a recent rebound from the important 78.6% Fibonacci level. This development is noteworthy and implies a resurgence of bullish momentum heading into 2024. Nevertheless, as is typical in currency markets, some retracements are to be expected. Therefore, the Australian Dollar presents an attractive opportunity for a “buy the dip” strategy at the start of the next year, aligning with the broader bullish trend.

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Trade well,

Grega

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Grega Horvat