{"id":5157,"date":"2018-03-02T15:11:27","date_gmt":"2018-03-02T15:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog-sg.forexanalytix.com\/?p=5157"},"modified":"2026-03-17T14:30:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T14:30:51","slug":"do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Do the Italian Elections pose a risk to the EZ recovery and affected assets?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div style='padding-bottom:16px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h3    '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >The Italian Elections and possible market implications<\/h3><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h4     '><h4 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Main contenders and trends<\/h4><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Sunday the 4<sup>th<\/sup> March is the day of the 2018 Italian parliamentary elections, and this has been a highly anticipated event.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re going to discuss the various outcomes and their probabilities, but first we\u2019re going to talk about the current market sentiment. <!--more-->In 2016 and 2017, the Italian elections had been viewed as a potentially explosive event, which could destabilise Italy and Europe (Italy\u2019s weak economy at the time, coupled with the banking sector\u2019s troubles didn\u2019t help the situation for sure). However, in the past few months sentiment has calmed down a lot and it seems that the markets believe that the most likely election outcome will be a positive one. Is this a realistic prospect or could there be a surprise in store?<\/p>\n<p>Italian politics have been on the ropes since Renzi\u2019s government collapsed just over a year ago and Paolo Gentiloni took over. The main players in the upcoming elections are well known and relatively clear with their agenda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Matteo Renzi leads the centre-left Democratic Party and although he\u2019s considered to have done a good job governing, his support has been diminishing. A government led by his party is undoubtedly considered to be the most safe and stable outcome, but this is by no means a given and the associated probability is dropping.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The 5-Star Movement was created around 8 years ago by comedian Beppe Grillo, and many people at the time considered it something of a joke. However, the party quickly gained support and now figure as one of the major parties. Luigi Di Maio, their new leader, is an aggressive 31-year old man with big ambitions. The main point to stress is that the attitude of the 5SM towards the EU and the Euro has changed drastically in the past year. They had been very anti-EU and anti-Euro in the past, but they have now made a 180-degree turn and have greatly moderated their anti-EU tone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Finally, the wildcard: the pre-election coalition of Silvio Berlusconi\u2019s \u201cForza Italia\u201d party with the far-right \u201cLega Nord\u201d headed by Matteo Salvini (it\u2019s worth noting that the coalition also includes smaller right-wing parties such as the FDI). Berlusconi is returning from a 6-year ban from politics and will not be able to be PM even if he wins until 2019; in this case he has already nominated Antonio Tajani (the current European Parliament president) to be PM. Berlusconi\u2019s coalition has actually been polling highest in nearly every poll in 2018, so he has great momentum going into Sunday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Without doubt, the best scenario for Italian and Euro stability &amp; continuity is either a DP government or a DP-led coalition. That\u2019s the most likely outcome as per the markets, but with Berlusconi\u2019s momentum it\u2019s certainly not a given.<\/p>\n<p>In case of a Forza Italia coalition win, things start to get a bit more complicated. If this scenario materialises and Forza gets more votes than Lega Nord then that would also be a relatively benign result. Tajani as PM will undoubtedly bring calm and stability in a pro-EU environment. The real problems would start if the Forza\/Lega coalition wins and Lega get more votes than Forza \u2013 this would mean that Salvini would be PM with the balance of power on his side. This would be a negative scenario for Italy, the Euro and risk in general. Overall, given Berlusconi\u2019s unpredictable character, any government which involves him could be considered as a risky one.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, possibly the most negative scenario would be for a 5SM\/Lega coalition government. This is quite unlikely given the recent poll results, but we have all seen polls being very wrong in recent years. In such a scenario there would be great uncertainty regarding future Italian \/ EU policy, with both parties reinforcing each other\u2019s extremes and creating a potentially explosive situation.<\/p>\n<p>Having outlined all the major scenario outcomes, we must also consider the fact that the Italian electoral law changed last year. When Gentiloni was appointed PM in December 2016 he was the fifth PM in five years, with none of the parties or coalitions being able to gain enough seats to govern during that time period. As a result, there have been even bigger coalitions needed in order to form governments, and this invariably leads to differing opinions and political instability.<\/p>\n<p>In the new system there are two votes, one for the 630-member Chamber of Deputies (Lower House) and one for the 315-member Senate (Upper House). The top party in each vote will get allocated around 1\/3 of the seats, with the remaining 2\/3 being allocated proportionately. This allocation encourages similarly minded parties to group together in coalitions rather than splitting the vote, and hence it makes it more likely for majority governments to form. The 5SM had been strongly opposing this reform, since they prefer not to form coalitions and feel that this new law puts them at a disadvantage.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, there are many different potential election outcomes, each with its own particularities and probability. The worrying part is that the markets are pricing a very low chance of a negative scenario unfolding \u2013 this is indeed the most probable outcome but surely a higher probability event than is currently priced in. For this reason, it\u2019s probably a very nice risk\/reward trade to be short Euro going into Sunday. Either way, Europe is bracing for yet another election result which could spring a negative outcome \u2013 so far previous elections such as in Germany and France have dodged trouble, will this time be the same?<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Stelios Kontogoulas<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><p><div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h4     '><h4 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >A technical view of the affected markets<\/h4><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h5     '><h5 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >EUR\/USD<\/h5><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The EUR\/USD pair has been in a downtrend since peaking (and posting a false breakout) above the 1.2550 level. Since then we have broken an up channel and are quickly approaching the breakout point from the highs of 2017, near 1.2100. The 1.2100 level also coincides with the long term (dotted) trend line which may offer some strong support following the election.<\/p>\n<p>If you are a EUR\/USD bull, looking for long positions near 1.2100 will probably offer the best risk\/reward setup.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><a href='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/eurblog.png' class='avia_image'  ><img class='avia_image ' src='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/eurblog.png' alt='EURUSD Daily Chart' title='eurblog'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Blake Morrow<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h5     '><h5 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >EURUSD from an Elliott Waves Perspective<\/h5><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The markets work in cycles from pessimism to optimism and vice-versa. Those cycles are easily observable across all asset classes. The best tool to analyze such cycles in advance is to look at the Elliott Wave pattern. The Elliott Wave model is a five wave advance and three wave pullback, so it\u2019s like three steps forward, two steps back and so on.<\/p>\n<p>As I look at EURUSD and listen to different traders and investors they are all very bullish after the 2017 strong move up which was without a doubt a very good year for the euro. That move brought a lot of new market participants that joined the bullish cycle late, at the start of 2018. But if you look closely you will notice that the advance of the last few months is a fifth wave up of an Elliott Wave model. In fifth waves the market is very optimistic, and normally when that\u2019s the case it\u2019s time to be prepared for something opposite; a turn. In other words a five wave cycle can come to an end rather soon. Regardless. another leg up is in the cards prior to a turn, but watch out for that Fibonacci resistance zone at 1.2650 where bulls may slow down and even prove to be the turning point in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><a href='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/eurusd.png' class='avia_image'  ><img class='avia_image ' src='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/eurusd.png' alt='EURUSD Elliot Waves Daily Chart' title='eurusd'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Grega Horvat<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h5     '><h5 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >The BUND<\/h5><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The BUND has recovered significantly since finding a low 4 weeks ago and part of this move can be attributed to the uncertainty the Italian elections have brought to the EZ as a whole. Although we remain bearish in the L\/T we had warned with our previous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/all-about-bonds\">blog post<\/a> that a rebound was very likely in the S\/T. A positive outcome will help the Bunds find a high nearby (watch the 50% Fib of the last leg lower at 160.57), while a negative outcome should provide fresh momentum to the recovery pushing the BUND higher, towards the 162.50 area before likely failing.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><a href='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/BUND-02-03-18-Daily-LT.png' class='avia_image'  ><img class='avia_image ' src='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/BUND-02-03-18-Daily-LT.png' alt='Bund Daily LT Chart' title='BUND 02-03-18 Daily LT'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<div style='padding-bottom:14px;' class='av-special-heading av-special-heading-h5    '><h5 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >The DAX<\/h5><div class='special-heading-border'><div class='special-heading-inner-border' ><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>The DAX has been leading risk lower since the 23rd of January, unsurprisingly after falsely breaking up to new highs briefly. The S\/T recovery that we saw after the waterfall kind of move lower has failed this week at the confluence of the 38.2% Fib and the expanding triangle&#8217;s support (acting as resistance). Ahead of the elections the DAX is approaching the 11800 horizontal support \/ resistance area which also confluences with an ascending T\/L support that dates back to the beginning of the last bull leg that started 2 years ago. An Italian elections outcome that will be consider positive from the market will help the DAX hold this area of support while a negative outcome will likely push risk lower slicing through that area and threatening to put in jeopardy the bull trend.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><a href='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/DAX-02-03-18-Daily-LT.png' class='avia_image'  ><img class='avia_image ' src='https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/DAX-02-03-18-Daily-LT.png' alt='DAX LT Daily Chart' title='DAX 02-03-18 Daily LT'  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '  style='font-size:14px; '  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Steve Voulgaridis<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div class='av-social-sharing-box  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description'>Share this entry<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/&amp;t=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target='_blank' href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F&url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/?p=5157' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-gplus' ><a target='_blank' href='https:\/\/plus.google.com\/share?url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f6' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Google+'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Google+<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&amp;title=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F&amp;url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Linkedin'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Linkedin<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-tumblr' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/www.tumblr.com\/share\/link?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexanalytix.com%2Fblog%2Fdo-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery%2F&amp;name=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F&amp;description=Sunday%20the%204th%20March%20is%20the%20day%20of%20the%202018%20Italian%20parliamentary%20elections%2C%20and%20this%20has%20been%20a%20highly%20anticipated%20event.%20We%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20discuss%20the%20various%20outcomes%20and%20their%20probabilities%2C%20but%20first%20we%E2%80%99re%20going%20to%20talk%20about%20the%20current%20market%20sentiment.' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8fa' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Tumblr'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Tumblr<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-reddit' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/reddit.com\/submit?url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/&amp;title=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue927' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Reddit'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Reddit<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-mail' ><a  href='mailto:?subject=Do%20the%20Italian%20Elections%20pose%20a%20risk%20to%20the%20EZ%20recovery%20and%20affected%20assets%3F&amp;body=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/do-the-italian-elections-pose-a-risk-to-the-ez-recovery\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue805' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share by Mail'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share by Mail<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sunday the 4th March is the day of the 2018 Italian parliamentary elections, and this has been a highly anticipated event. We\u2019re going to discuss the various outcomes and their probabilities, but first we\u2019re going to talk about the current market sentiment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12754,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,75,38,39],"tags":[46,127,57,135,156,58,134,47,60,61,130,63,44,126,131,128,45,70,86,71],"class_list":["post-5157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-combined-analysis","category-elliott-wave-analysis","category-macro-analysis","category-technical-analysis","tag-analysis","tag-blake-morrow","tag-bonds","tag-bund","tag-bunds","tag-chart-patterns","tag-dax","tag-eur","tag-eurusd","tag-forex","tag-grega-horvat","tag-harmonics","tag-macro","tag-nicola-duke","tag-stelios-kontogoulas","tag-steve-voulgaridis","tag-technical","tag-trading","tag-us-dollar","tag-usd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Do the Italian Elections pose a risk to the EZ recovery and affected assets? 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