{"id":3844,"date":"2016-08-29T18:48:48","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T18:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog-sg.forexanalytix.com\/?p=3446"},"modified":"2026-03-17T14:26:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T14:26:33","slug":"hi-yo-silver-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/","title":{"rendered":"Hi-Ho, Silver! Away!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"flex_column av_one_half  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Technical Aspect:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Clearly recognisable bottoming consolidation that lasted for a whole year (2015). Anyone remember how the bottom of USDJPY looked like?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>XAGUSD bottomed at the dawn of 2016. If you are a subscriber of ForexAnalytix you will have probably read plenty of times in my analysis about the importance of seasonality (tops and bottoms have the tendency to appear way more often than statistics would suggest near the beginning or end of a month \/ year etc.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>A few days ago we registered an RSI higher than 70 (on the weekly) for the 1st time after 2011. Yes, that means it was overbought on the S\/T but you get those kind of \u00a0&#8220;signals&#8221; when the trend is up, not down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Very clear impulsive structure from an Elliott Wave standpoint (currently at 4th wave of III) suggests a new high, another correction and probably another high after that before a deeper correction.<\/li>\n<li>Silver hasn&#8217;t even retraced 23.6% of the multiyear drop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>We are currently sitting on top of important horizontal support ($18.50). IF that fails $17.70 is another great level to try being long.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Steve Voulgaridis<\/p>\n<p>Disclaimer: As obvious from this post, both Steve and Stelios believe in the recovery of silver and hence are long the metal (from lower levels).<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_half  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding   \" style='border-radius:0px; '><section class=\"av_textblock_section \"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock  '   itemprop=\"text\" ><p><strong>Macro Aspect:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Silver has always been closely correlated with gold. The fall from the 2011 highs has been substantial, with the\u00a0recent lows representing\u00a0a staggering 70% drop.\u00a0Silver has the blessing (or some would say it&#8217;s a curse) of being both a monetary metal as well as having heavy industrial use, and for this reason it&#8217;s been hit along with oil &amp; commodities.<\/p>\n<p>Silver has built a solid base in 2016 and there are several reasons why it should build on this and reach significantly higher levels:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Global growth and inflation remain at historically very low levels.<\/li>\n<li>Most central banks remain on an easing bias, while the Federal Reserve is following a very shallow hiking path.<\/li>\n<li>Global yields are at record lows, with a staggering $10 trillion of global bonds now yielding negative.<\/li>\n<li>Central bank balance sheets keep growing at a steady pace given most western countries&#8217; persistent deficits, and thus currency debasement continues unabated.<\/li>\n<li>Geopolitical risk remains elevated and this gives steady flight-to-safety support to gold and silver.<\/li>\n<li>There has been very strong demand for physical silver over the past few years and this is projected to continue. Apart from demand for coins &amp; bars, there is increasing demand in applications such as solar panels, consumer electronics and medical use.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It&#8217;s a common belief that hiking cycles are particularly bad for silver but this isn&#8217;t always true. For example, in the 2004-2006 Fed hiking cycle silver rallied roughly 100%. When rates start going up and the global economy recovers, the industrial \/ medical demand for silver should give it a much bigger lift than markets believe.<\/p>\n<p>Finally on a technical aspect, silver has recently shown bullish price action following Janet Yellen&#8217;s Jackson Hole speech. The US dollar surged but silver failed to sell off; an initial medium term target of $25-$26 should be quite realistic for all the above reasons.<\/p>\n<p>Stelios Konto<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/div>\n<div class='av-social-sharing-box  '><div class='av-share-box'><h5 class='av-share-link-description'>Share this entry<\/h5><ul class='av-share-box-list noLightbox'><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-facebook' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/&amp;t=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f3' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Facebook'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-twitter' ><a target='_blank' href='https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21&url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/?p=3844' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f1' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Twitter'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-gplus' ><a target='_blank' href='https:\/\/plus.google.com\/share?url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8f6' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Google+'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Google+<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-linkedin' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/linkedin.com\/shareArticle?mini=true&amp;title=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21&amp;url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8fc' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Linkedin'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Linkedin<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-tumblr' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/www.tumblr.com\/share\/link?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexanalytix.com%2Fblog%2Fhi-yo-silver-away%2F&amp;name=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21&amp;description=' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue8fa' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Tumblr'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Tumblr<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-reddit' ><a target='_blank' href='http:\/\/reddit.com\/submit?url=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/&amp;title=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue927' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share on Reddit'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share on Reddit<\/span><\/a><\/li><li class='av-share-link av-social-link-mail' ><a  href='mailto:?subject=Hi-Ho%2C%20Silver%21%20Away%21&amp;body=https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/hi-yo-silver-away\/' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue805' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' title='' data-avia-related-tooltip='Share by Mail'><span class='avia_hidden_link_text'>Share by Mail<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><img class='avia_image ' src='http:\/\/staging.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/XAGUSD-Weekly-29-8-16.png' alt='' title=''   itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"flex_column av_one_full  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding first  \" style='border-radius:0px; '><div class='avia-image-container  av-styling-    avia-align-center '  itemprop=\"ImageObject\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"  ><div class='avia-image-container-inner'><img class='avia_image ' src='http:\/\/staging.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/XAGUSD-Daily-29-8-16.png' alt='' title=''   itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":12754,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[46,44,67,68,45,71,73,74],"class_list":["post-3844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-combined-analysis","tag-analysis","tag-macro","tag-pms","tag-silver","tag-technical","tag-usd","tag-xag","tag-xagusd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hi-Ho, Silver! 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Following a 5-year IT consulting career (having worked for Accenture among others), he felt unfulfilled and wanted to make a change. He completed an MBA and during that time \u2013 via a summer internship \u2013 he was exposed to the world of trading. He instantly knew that this is what he wanted to do for the rest of his career. Stelios spent the next 10 busy years working for two major global banks in the City of London as an interest rates market-maker. In 2012 Stelios decided to start a family with his wife and they both moved back home to Greece. For the past 4 years Stelios has been trading his family portfolio \u2013 mainly FX but also most other asset classes. His trading decisions are mostly driven by fundamentals and are very rarely short-term. He uses technicals for entry\\\/exit points and is a loyal follower of basic technical analysis and Fibonacci. 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Following a 5-year IT consulting career (having worked for Accenture among others), he felt unfulfilled and wanted to make a change. He completed an MBA and during that time \u2013 via a summer internship \u2013 he was exposed to the world of trading. He instantly knew that this is what he wanted to do for the rest of his career. Stelios spent the next 10 busy years working for two major global banks in the City of London as an interest rates market-maker. In 2012 Stelios decided to start a family with his wife and they both moved back home to Greece. For the past 4 years Stelios has been trading his family portfolio \u2013 mainly FX but also most other asset classes. His trading decisions are mostly driven by fundamentals and are very rarely short-term. He uses technicals for entry\/exit points and is a loyal follower of basic technical analysis and Fibonacci. Aside from trading and economics, Stelios spends most of his time with the 4 wonderful women in his life: his wife, his two baby daughters and his dog Milly. He is a devoted pool &amp; snooker player and also loves to windsurf and play poker.","sameAs":["http:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com","https:\/\/x.com\/bbki2611"],"url":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/author\/skonto\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3844","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3844"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3844\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12759,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3844\/revisions\/12759"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3844"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3844"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.forexanalytix.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3844"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}