On August 19th we argued that the USDMXN has room to rally to the key resistance we have hit the last couple sessions (read here) but now that we are at key resistance, what now?
The USDMXN has a very sloppy cup and handle pattern.
The USDMXN has been trading abnormally heavy the last couple sessions and is now at risk at a break lower out of the long term daily triangle.
The EURMXN is breaking out of a long term consolidation inside a triangle that has formed all of 2019. This is a significant development for a couple reasons.
Consolidation patterns, like a triangle, can be very explosive patterns when it comes to the markets because the market is “winding up” for so long.
The USDMXN has broken lower out of an ascending wedge, and what makes this potential so good for shorts is the RSI has also been divergent on the last move higher the last few weeks.
The Federal Reserve announced on the 20th September that it would begin its multi-trillion Dollar balance sheet reduction as planned, starting October 2017.
It was on this blog that we posted on the 22nd of January a post called “USDMXN: Multiple signs point to a reversal” and predicted that the USDMXN was finally about to reverse the 3.5 year old wild uptrend that brought it up, all the way to the 22 handle.
Mexico has been in the spotlight in the past couple of years, mainly due to Donald Trump’s tough stance against it in the run-up to the US Presidential elections. But, politics aside, let’s take a look and see if the recent extreme market movements are justified by the underlying fundamentals.