The NZD/JPY posted a double top on the daily, we are currently breaking the neckline now.
The EUR/NZD just broke out of a descending wedge. For the record, this is my favorite reversal pattern (technically). Obviously, the risks around the French elections are high, but you can’t deny the momentum we have seen as the pair has broken higher.
The GBP/NZD has a major triangle pattern which is probing the top end of the triangle. With the invocation of Article 50 just around the corner, risks surround this pair. However, arguments have been made that the GBP has already priced in most of the risks moving forward.
The NZD/CAD had a massive topside breakout failure last year. Patterns like this usually lead to a breakdown. Specifically, a break of the year long trend line (red) would be outright bearish. Note that we are currently testing the 200DMA.
The AUD/NZD is a pair that is trading at levels not seen since mid 2016. With a possible trade war with China looming, that is a risk for the antipodean currencies. Now that China is the biggest trading partner of New Zealand, maybe a trade war between the US and China could have a bigger impact on NZD than AUD at this point?
One last point. Typically, when the market goes “risk off” (which means that stock markets, commodities, etc. come under selling pressure) the currencies most likely to fall first and hardest are commodity currencies and ones with higher interest rates (carry purposes). Considering the equity markets at current prices, that risk gets greater the higher we go. In a world of ZIRP for the most part, NZD OCR at 1.75% is one of the highest central bank rates for the major currencies. And it is a commodity currency. Could be a double whammy.